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WEEKLY GOLD OUTLOOK
XAUUSD weekly outlook – week of 2 November 2026
Gold (XAUUSD) starts the week near $3,900 an ounce, up about 0.7% on Monday morning after Friday's 3.5% slide to its lowest level since October 2025. The week is packed: the US midterm elections on Tuesday, a run of US data ending with the October jobs report on Friday, and continued debate about a December Fed rate hike. Oil prices and talks around Iran remain an important background driver.
Written on Monday 2 November 2026. Prices are rounded and as of about 04:40 UTC. For the short daily note, see gold price today.
What happened last week
Gold began last week around $4,000. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00%, but two policymakers voted for an immediate hike. A brief spike above $4,070 after the decision faded. On Thursday stronger US growth data and firm PCE inflation kept expectations of a December hike high, and gold slipped back towards $4,000.
Friday brought the sharpest move. Spot gold fell about 3.5% in one session and dropped below $3,900, its lowest level in roughly a year. Reports pointed to several overlapping pressures:
- Forced selling. A sell-off in technology shares led some investors to sell gold to cover margin calls and losses elsewhere. Commerzbank and other analysts described part of the drop as liquidation rather than a change in the longer-term picture.
- Rate expectations. Three Fed officials argued on Friday for further rate increases to fight inflation. Gold pays no interest, so higher expected rates raise the cost of holding it.
- Oil and inflation. With Brent crude above $110 a barrel for much of the week, energy costs kept inflation worries alive, which supports the "higher for longer" view on rates.
Notably, Kitco reported that the dollar and Treasury yields eased on Friday, conditions that would normally help gold. That gold fell anyway underlines how much of the move came from positioning and selling pressure.
The main drivers this week
1. US midterm elections (Tuesday 3 November)
Voting takes place on Tuesday, with results arriving overnight into Wednesday. For gold, the election matters mainly through what it may mean for fiscal policy, the dollar and policy towards Iran. Market reports note that President Trump has warned that strikes on Iran could resume after the midterms, while diplomatic talks continue. Election nights can bring sharp moves in the dollar and in risk assets.
2. Fed expectations and Fed speakers
Markets price roughly a 73% chance of a December hike, based on CME FedWatch. Several Fed officials are due to speak during the week. Comments that reinforce the hike path would be consistent with the pressure gold has faced; a more cautious tone could ease some of it.
3. US labour-market data (Tuesday to Friday)
JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), ADP private payrolls (Wednesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and the October employment report (Friday) will shape the rate debate. A strong labour market would support hike expectations; signs of cooling could temper them.
4. Oil and the Middle East
On Monday oil fell more than 3% after reports of Iran–US talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, which eased inflation worries and helped gold steady. Gold's link with oil has worked mainly through inflation and rate expectations rather than safe-haven demand, so oil remains worth watching alongside gold.
5. Positioning and broader markets
After a fall of this size, gold can be sensitive to how equities behave. If the technology sell-off continues, further forced selling is possible; if markets calm, some analysts see room for consolidation. Kitco's weekly survey showed most Wall Street analysts leaning lower, while retail participants leaned higher, a sign of how divided views are.
Price areas the market is watching
These are areas where price reacted recently or round numbers that attract attention. They are not forecasts and not trading levels.
| Area | Why it is watched |
|---|---|
| $4,070–4,080 | Brief spike after the Fed decision, which faded |
| $4,000 | Round number that held for much of last week before breaking |
| $3,900 | Round number; price is trading around it on Monday |
| High $3,800s | Friday's one-year low area |
Calendar (times UTC, subject to change)
- Monday 2 Nov: US ISM manufacturing PMI (15:00).
- Tuesday 3 Nov: US midterm elections; JOLTS job openings (15:00); Reserve Bank of Australia decision.
- Wednesday 4 Nov: ADP private payrolls; ISM services PMI (15:00).
- Thursday 5 Nov: Bank of England decision; US weekly jobless claims (13:30).
- Friday 6 Nov: US October employment report (13:30); University of Michigan sentiment.
Summary
Gold enters the week after a sharp, partly forced sell-off, trading near $3,900. Three things are likely to set the tone: the midterm results and any policy signals that follow, what the labour data and Fed speakers say about a December hike, and the direction of oil as Iran talks continue. Volatility is elevated, and moves in either direction are possible.
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Sources used for this outlook include market reports from Reuters (via Investing.com and MarketScreener), Kitco, Shafaq News, Goodreturns, FinanceFeeds, Yardeni QuickTakes and FatTail, published 30 October – 2 November 2026.
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